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would probably welcome tacitly if not openly blockading by us of their enemies. They have themselves often threatened such a blockade. It is unlikely therefore that
blockade or other coercive measure taken by us against the
South would unite North and South against us. Patriotism
as understood in Europe does not yet exist in China and
lack of cohesian between North and South is amply
illustrated in Chinese history.
5. Effect of economic pressure brought to bear by us recently at Hankow was very marked see Shanghai telegram to Peking No.11 of the 8th January, O'Malley's telegrams
to Peking No.12 January 19th paragraph 2 and No.17 of 22nd January. Blockade would so disorganise trade and
financial conditions at Canton and on the middle Yangtze
as to make military situation in the South very precarious especially as the only adequate channels for supplying their armies are through Canton and Yangtze. Canton
depends entirely on imports for kerosine, mainly on imports for piece goods, and has to import large quantities of rice, coal, sugar, flour and tobacco. Economic pressure would soon be felt and would stimulate existing dissatisfaction with
red regime. There would be little patriotism to fortify
the people in enduring hardships of the blockade.
6. Warlike action by us against the South would
probably cause outbreak of disaffection in Kuangtung and elsewhere by antred against Bolshevik Southern leaders and
be the signal for a determined attack upon them by the North.
The Southern armies cannot compare with the western military
forces and their success es have been bought not fought for.
The labour tyranny now imposed is resented by middle and upper classes and even by a section of labour itself.
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